[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051615
SWODY1
SPC AC 051614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW
PNS 20 SW DHN 20 S CAE 20 SSE FLO 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 40 SE SSI 55
NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BVE 20 ENE MOB
10 S MGM 10 WSW AHN 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF ...CONT... 45 E DAB 50 W
FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD
ACROSS SRN GA AND ERN SC...

S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND MAX MOVING THRU L/W TROUGH
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO
ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.  FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD ALONG
SC/NC BORDER THEN SWWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA TO
WRN FL PANHANDLE.  20-30 KT SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SERN STATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE WAVE ON FRONT LOCATED OVER GA WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEWD TODAY
AND THEN OVERNIGHT DEEPEN TO OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS STRONG
WIND MAX APPROACHES FROM TN VALLEY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AIR MASS
INSTABILITY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM SUGGESTS THAT TO GET
MUCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL REQUIRE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO
MID/UPPER 70S. IT APPEARS COASTAL GA/SC AND ERN FL PANHANDLE COULD
REACH THESE LEVELS.

WITH MINIMAL CIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON.  SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND
HELICITIES FROM 200-300 M2/S2 AS NOTED ON TLH VAD...SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO THRU THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END FROM THE W THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.

..HALES.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM