[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051255
SWODY1
SPC AC 051253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
SSI 55 NNW PIE ...CONT... 60 SW PNS 25 ESE GZH 20 S CAE 20 SSE FLO
45 SSE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DAB 50 W FMY
...CONT... 65 SW HUM 25 NE GPT 30 N MGM 50 NW AHN 25 W RDU 40 ESE
ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE ACROSS GA AND SC....

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NATION.  SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN MS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING
OF SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 06Z NAM ALREADY APPEARS SLOW WITH PLACEMENT OF
COLD FRONT OVER AL/MS. THIS SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION MORE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR
MOBILE.  THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN
AL/FL PANHANDLE WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS SPREAD INLAND.  MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY THIS
MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN GA.

OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS
OF GA/SC.  AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.  HOWEVER...BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE DAY
SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY
AFTER DARK AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.

..HART.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM