[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050551
SWODY1
SPC AC 050549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
PNS 30 NE DHN 40 ENE MCN 10 SSE CRE 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 35 NE SGJ
45 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DAB 45 W FMY
...CONT... 50 S LCH 45 W JAN 40 NW BHM 55 S TYS 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER GRTLKS AND OH VLY BY EARLY
TUE.  TAIL-END OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE SERN
STATES.  ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DEEP S...ACROSS
CNTRL GA AND INTO COASTAL SC THROUGH 00Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING NEWD
OFF THE NC COAST EARLY TUE.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE INTO NRN/CNTRL FL WHILE WEAKENING MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. 

...SERN STATES...
A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS
RVR NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AT 12Z MON ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-45 KT
WSWLY LLJ.  MOST TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION WHERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK EARLY IN THE DAY FROM
CNTRL/SRN AL NEWD INTO CNTRL GA AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC. 

WARM SECTOR EVOLUTION MON AFTN ACROSS SRN GA...COASTAL SC AND NRN FL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  SRN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY VERY
WELL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS EARLY AS 12Z ACROSS THIS
REGION...BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS.  THE FAST WSWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL.  BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
MAY ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN SUCH STRONG FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM SRN GA INTO COASTAL SC.  HERE...LOCALIZED
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND A STRONG VEERING/INCREASING WIND PROFILE
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES.

STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD OFFSHORE SC/NC
BY MON EVE AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME.  AS A
RESULT...BANDS OF TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS THEY SINK SWD INTO
NRN/CNTRL FL OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM