[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
BPT 25 NNE LCH HEZ 25 NW GAD 40 S CLT 20 NNE FLO 40 S FLO 30 SW AGS
30 W MCN 40 SSW TOI 50 SE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 60 NNE VCT
30 NNW UTS 10 SSE PBF 35 NNE UOX 35 SW TYS 40 SE TRI 45 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CHS 40 NE VDI 20
NNE MGR 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S INTO
THE PIEDMONT OF SC...

...PIEDMONT SC WWD INTO THE DEEP S...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY FRONT FROM UPSTATE NC/SC ACROSS NRN
GA...CNTRL AL THEN SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.  RESIDUAL LLJ
THAT WAS LARGELY TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT EXITED INTO THE
ATLANTIC BASIN EARLIER TODAY...HAS SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SC.  THIS REGION
EXPERIENCED HEATING TODAY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTED TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.

FARTHER W...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WAS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN
GA...CNTRL AL...CNTRL MS AND LA.  STRONGEST CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS
EVOLVED INTO A BOW ECHO OVER SRN MS VCNTY A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW.  THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD INTO SRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS...BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE INCREASING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DEEP S LATER TONIGHT.  THE
RESULT WILL BE FOR A BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION TO EVOLVE/INTENSIFY
FROM ERN LA ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE DEEP S SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE
FOR TSTMS.  WHILE THERE WILL BE A PROPENSITY FOR MOST OF THE
CONVECTION TO BE POST-FRONTAL GIVEN BACKING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
/I.E. SHEAR BECOMING POINTED MORE TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FRONT/...WARM SECTOR INITIATION IS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN 40-45 KTS OF
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...
TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INT0 LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE OFF THE FRONT INTO THE
WARM SECTOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.

..RACY.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM