[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041246
SWODY1
SPC AC 041244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
GLS POE 20 ESE RMG 35 S SPA 20 NNW CAE AGS 40 WSW MCN 40 NE CEW 50
SSE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT
20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE CHS 20 NE SSI
15 S VLD 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS PARTS
OF LA/MS/AL.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION.  THIS WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT
OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  NEVERTHELESS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST REGION AFTER
DARK...CAUSING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
RISK OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.  HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING THE SEVERE
THREAT RATHER LIMITED.

..HART.. 12/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM