[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041609
SWODY1
SPC AC 041608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
GLS 30 W ESF 20 N ATL 35 SW MCN 20 WSW DHN 50 SSE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT
20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE CHS 20 NE SSI
15 S VLD 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST
REGION...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CONUS. WEAK RIDGING LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THRU NERN U.S. AND NEXT TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTRAL ROCKIES DROPS SEWD.  SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
CROSSING APPALACHIANS EXTENDS WSWWD THRU NRN AL INTO CENTRAL LA TO
TX COASTAL PLAIN. PORTION OF FRONT GULF STATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.

A VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FLOW NEWD
ACROSS GULF STATES IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT.  WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM UPPER 60S
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS GA...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

LATER TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW...MODELS
INDICATE A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS CENTRAL AL AND THEN MOVES
ENEWD ACROSS GA TOWARD MORNING.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE.  WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
COMMON VICINITY AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE MUCH OF FORECAST
PERIOD...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND CORRESPONDING WIND
DAMAGE LATER TONIGHT.

..HALES.. 12/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM