[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040552
SWODY1
SPC AC 040551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
GLS POE 20 ESE RMG 35 S SPA 20 NNW CAE AGS 40 WSW MCN 40 NE CEW 50
SSE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT
20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRE 30 SE OGB
25 W MGR 45 SSW AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO
PARTS OF SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CNTRL STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS.  DOWNSTREAM...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH
VLY...WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONT THAT SETTLES SEWD BEHIND THE LEAD WAVE WILL SLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND THE DEEP S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW REGIME
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE
NEWD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY BY 12Z MON.

...GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO SC...
NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY...TIED
LARGELY TO THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.  THE TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS THE
ASSOCIATED WSWLY LLJ WEAKENS.

AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE STALLING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.  LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF PEAK HEATING 
LEADS TO AN UNCERTAINTY ON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.  MAINTENANCE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THOUGH...MAY OFFER
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
 HERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAKENING LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...THOUGH ISOLD HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR...BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND INTENSIFY LATE SUNDAY
AFTN FROM PARTS OF PIEDMONT SC WWD INTO THE DEEP S.  IF THIS INDEED
OCCURS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MODEST BUOYANCY
WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

LATER SUNDAY...AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...THE SWLY LLJ WILL ACCELERATE...MAXIMIZING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.  STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RATHER
BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

..RACY.. 12/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM