[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040102
SWODY1
SPC AC 040100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
PAH 10 SSW OWB 45 S SDF 60 SW LEX 55 NNW CSV 40 SE BNA 15 NNW HSV 35
ENE CBM 35 ESE GWO 25 ENE MLU 25 E ELD 35 NE PBF 35 NW DYR 10 NNW
PAH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB
20 ESE FLO 30 ENE ATL 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E
TPL 20 NW TXK 30 WNW MDH 40 N SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN KY SWWD
INTO THE TN/LWR MS VLYS...

...SRN KY SWWD INTO THE LWR MS/TN VLYS...
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF KMEM WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING E INTO SWRN KY...THEN SEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NERN
AL AND NRN GA. RESPECTABLE PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
CNTRL AR AND NERN TX.  

SSWLY LLJ HAS TRANSPORTED NEAR 60F DEW POINTS NWD TO THE KMEM AREA
AND MLCAPES HAVE RANGED FROM 1000-2000 J/KG JUST EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS EVE.  BUT...THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS OF TX WARMED CONSIDERABLY TODAY...WITH A PLUME OF WARMER AIR
EXTENDING NEWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CAP ON THE
00Z LCH/JAN SOUNDINGS. 

LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSE TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE TN/LWR MS VLYS THIS EVENING.  THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION MAY NOT OCCUR
OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING AND ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MASS
CONVERGENCE.  BUT...THE THREAT REMAINS NON-ZERO VCNTY THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WRN TN AND NWRN MS THROUGH THE EVENING.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS TO FORM FROM SRN
KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND ERN AR THROUGH MID-EVENING AND NWRN MS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CORE SITUATED OVER THE OH VLY STRENGTHENS
AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE THETA-E AXIS.  THESE STORMS ARE
APT TO BE ROOTED NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. 
FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.  BUT...AGAIN...IF A STORM
MANAGES TO FORM CLOSE TO THE SURFACE/ALONG THE FRONT...AN ISOLD
TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WRN TN OR
NWRN MS.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP/
BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN LA AND ERN TX LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER TO THE NE.

..RACY.. 12/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM