[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 032014
SWODY1
SPC AC 032012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 40 SW DYR 15 SSE CKV 20
NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB
20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E
TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY AND VICINITY...

...TN VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY...
WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION ATTM...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

DESPITE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE -- ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 04/00Z -- AS
CAPPING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR/ON S SIDE OF UPPER JET. 
THEREFORE...THOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS
CONDITIONAL UPON WARM-SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  

HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR/SWRN MO SHIFTS EWD
WITH TIME ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY -- AND INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE
FAVORING MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST JUST TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT.  SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS -- WILL THEREFORE INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 04/03-09Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS SRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL...NEAR AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE
OF FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WOULD 
BE GREATEST IF POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-SURFACE-BASED
SUPERCELLS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS IS REALIZED.

..GOSS.. 12/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM