[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031623
SWODY1
SPC AC 031621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 40 SW DYR 15 SSE CKV 20
NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB
20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E
TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS...

...PORTIONS OF LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS.

STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS GULF STATES THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX INITIALLY SRN ROCKIES. 
BY THIS EVENING 70-80KT 500 MB SPEED MAX WILL BE CROSSING LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET E TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
INCREASE TO 50-60 KT TONIGHT FROM NRN MS TO SRN APPALACHIANS.

THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK MOVES TO WRN TN THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MS/AL INTO WRN/MID TN.

WITH 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LA/MS INTO WRN AL ALONG
WITH EWD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIX LAYER CURRENTLY OVER TX...MUCAPES
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  COUPLED
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THE EML
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL
AFTER DARK.

THE CURRENT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE WARM ADVECTION
TN VALLEY AND INTO NRN GULF STATES WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY  DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR
ALREADY IN PLACE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON N OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING NWD TO
VICINITY TN/AL/MS BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY THREAT OF SUPERCELLS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING WIND MAX CROSS LOWER MS VALLEY.  STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING SRN TN INTO NRN MS/AL AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP DOWN
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT UNDER THE VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE FOR LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH CORRESPONDING WIND DAMAGE
THREAT NRN GULF COAST STATES.

..HALES.. 12/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM