[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031235
SWODY1
SPC AC 031233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 25 SW DYR 10 WSW CKV 20
NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB
20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E
TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEYS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FROM EAST TX INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST
TN ACROSS PARTS OF MS/LA.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/LA/SOUTHERN AR...HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER AR/TN.  THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER WESTERN TN/SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHERN LA.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AOB 1500 J/KG...WHICH COMBINED
WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD TEND TO SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TN/PARTS OF
MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL AREA OF GREATER TORNADO
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN...WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS
EASTERN TN/GA OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT.

..HART.. 12/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM