[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311956
SWODY1
SPC AC 311955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
ACY 25 W MSV 10 ENE UCA 20 ENE MSS ...CONT... 50 N BML 25 S AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD
20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NNW EAR 20 ESE OFK 20 NW
OTG 10 NW AXN 40 SSE TVF 50 W RRT ...CONT... 60 N CMX 15 ESE AUW 35
SE DBQ 40 NE VIH 25 E UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB
25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR
45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 35 E MEI 20 NNW AUO 35 S CAE 30 ENE
CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 25 ENE CXY
10 ESE ELM 25 W ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN US...

...NERN STATES...
THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES INTO SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF ERN NY. MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS CORRIDOR
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHICH WILL FUEL THE STORMS CURRENTLY
DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW
FROM WRN IA INTO CNTRL KS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
MOST OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WHICH
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.