[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311634
SWODY1
SPC AC 311632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
BML 25 S AUG ...CONT... 10 E ACY 20 NW MSV 20 ENE UCA 30 E MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N CMX 15 ESE AUW
35 SE DBQ 40 NE VIH 25 E UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW
LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ
30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NNW EAR 20 ESE OFK 20 NW OTG 10 NW
AXN 40 SSE TVF 50 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR
45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 35 E MEI 20 NNW AUO 35 S CAE 30 ENE
CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE WAL 30 ENE BWI
20 SE ELM 30 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND....

...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE REMNANTS OF
KATRINA MOVING NEWD ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.  E OF THE
SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH
LOW-MID 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY/ERN PA/ERN VA...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING
EWD ACROSS WRN PA/NY.  A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SE
NY...THOUGH RELATIVELY THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THE
WARM SECTOR GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SHIFTING
QUICKLY NWD TOWARD QUEBEC...AND THE IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  STILL...A BELT OF 40-50 KT L0W-MID
LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE NEWD MOVING HURRICANE REMNANTS...
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...SRN MN/IA/NW MO/ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN MN/IA...AND SEWD ACROSS KS
TOWARD NW OK AND NW MO.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ACROSS THE PLAINS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 08/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.