[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311226
SWODY1
SPC AC 311225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
NEL 15 S AVP 10 SSE BGM 30 NE MSS ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 15 ESE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD
20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 35 NE AKO 30 SW BBW 10 W OFK 10 SW ATY
25 ESE JMS 15 N BIS 35 SSE ISN 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 45 ENE IWD 15
ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE JEF UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55
SSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S
CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 40 ESE MEI 10 SE LGC 15 NE CAE 25 SSE RDU 55
SSW RIC 35 NW RIC 25 NE SHD 40 NW EKN 30 ENE ZZV 40 NE CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO
MUCH OF WRN/SRN ENGLAND...

...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...
OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SURFACE REMNANTS OF
KATRINA NEWD INTO FAR SRN QUEBEC BY LATER TODAY.  AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
AND AID IN PULLING RICH...TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO MOST OF SRN/WRN
NEW ENGLAND.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ATOP 70+ SFC DEW POINTS AS 50 KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  VWP AT ALB/KENX INDICATED 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS
OF 350 M2/S2 AT 12Z...AND THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE COMMON FROM
THE NRN MID ATLANTIC NNEWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR TODAY.  DESPITE THE
EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG WAA
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS.  THIS WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT LAPSE
RATES...BUT MAY ACT TO CAP BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP EXTENSIVE DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY.  REGARDLESS...TEMPERED AFTERNOON HEATING
IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS
BAND OF ASCENT NOW SPREADING NEWD INTO CENTRAL PA/NY SHIFTS INTO ERN
NY BY 18Z.  SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE
INHIBITIVE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE /AS IS TYPICAL WITH LOW CAPE-HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS/.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED...DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS LOW CENTER LIFTS NNEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S. AND BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES CAPPED.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SURFACE
FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.  DEEP ASCENT AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINES...AND
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST GIVEN RELATIVELY
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.  THEREFORE...EXPECT
ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.