[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 302000
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE
MCN 25 SE MCN 50 NW AHN 40 NNW TYS 30 WNW JKL 25 NNE UNI 30 SE BFD
30 W AVP 25 SW ABE 25 E NHK 35 SW ORF 15 S FAY 35 N SAV 55 W SAV 55
SE MCN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE 7R4 50 NW CEW
40 NW AUO 35 NE HSV 40 SW CKV 45 NNW EVV 25 NW MIE 45 NW CLE
...CONT... 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 55 S GLD 45 S LIC 40 NNW LAR
15 SSW LND 35 SSW MQM 25 ESE 27U 35 SSW 3DU 45 NNW HLN 40 NE HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...EAST COAST/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION KATRINA MOVING NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. A
DRY SLOT IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
VIRGINIAS. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN
MTNS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS IS CREATING
STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 35 KT TO 45 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING
WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO
THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NC AND ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VA.
AS KATRINA MOVES NNEWD OVERNIGHT...THE SUPERCELL THREAT MAY LESSEN
SOMEWHAT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A 
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
WITH DISCRETE STORMS MOVING ACROSS AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED
INSTABILITY.

...DAKOTAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AS STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ASCENT SPREADS
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 750
TO 1250 J/KG ACROSS NRN SD AND WRN ND. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ESPECIALLY AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPANDS OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXTENDING NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL FORMATION WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.