[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310056
SWODY1
SPC AC 310055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
FLO 25 SSW CLT 15 NW HKY 40 ENE TRI 10 E CRW 20 SSE HLG 30 ENE DUJ
IPT 25 WSW ABE 25 E NHK 35 SW ORF 35 ESE RWI 25 W OAJ 35 E FLO 30
WNW FLO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20
NW OLU 40 S GLD 20 ESE COS 45 SSW DGW 45 WNW CPR 15 E COD 15 WSW BIL
15 SW LWT 20 S HVR 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 ENE AQQ 35 E CEW 30 SSW
TOI 25 E TOI 45 SE AHN 50 SSE TYS 15 ESE LOZ 55 WNW HTS 20 NE CMH 20
W ERI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF PA SWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY THIS
EVENING FROM NRN VA SWD INTO THE CNTRL CAROLINAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE
TO BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN BUOYANCY.  00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
REMAINED QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS.  EXPECT THAT OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS AIR MASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES.  NONETHELESS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF REMNANT KATRINA TRACK...MAINLY FROM
VA INTO S-CNTRL PA.  HERE...STRONGEST AMBIENT SHEAR WILL BE
CO-LOCATED WITH WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ AND RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2123.

...NRN PLAINS...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CNTRL MT PROGRESSING EWD.  AT THE SURFACE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM SERN SK SWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND THEN WWD INTO
CNTRL WY.  INCREASE IN LIGHTNING FROM SERN SK TO NEAR P24 IN WRN ND
OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE
AND WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG /PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LLJ
SHOULD MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR.  WHEN COUPLED WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2124.

..MEAD.. 08/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.