[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301638
SWODY1
SPC AC 301637

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
AND 45 NNW HSS 25 E JKL 20 W CRW 35 SSW EKN 30 NW MRB 10 SE MRB 50
NE CHO 35 NE DAN 30 NE CLT 35 SSE SPA 15 ENE AND.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
AYS 35 S MCN 30 N MCN 55 NNW AHN 30 NNW TYS 35 N LOZ 20 N UNI 30 SSE
BFD 30 W AVP 15 SW ABE 35 SSW NHK 25 SW FAY 50 NNE AYS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20
NW OLU 55 S GLD 45 S LIC 40 NNW LAR 10 W LND 40 SE MQM 25 ESE BTM 50
W LWT 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 45 ESE 7R4 50 NW CEW 40 NW AUO 35 NE HSV
40 SW CKV 45 NNW EVV 25 NW MIE 45 NW CLE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AREA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
FROM GA TO PA....

...APPALACHIANS AREA...
THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD FROM MIDDLE TN ACROSS
CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON AND SRN OH TONIGHT.  VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY
STABLE PROFILES ACCOMPANY THE WARM CORE LOW OVER MUCH OF
TN/KY...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN A NARROW DRY SLOT
 W OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM ERN TN NEWD TOWARD SRN WV.  THE STRONGER
LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL PROGRESSES ALONG
THIS SAME CORRIDOR...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND A
FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

FARTHER E...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES E OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST E OF THE
THICKER CLOUD COVER FROM THE PIEDMONT OF SC NEWD INTO S CENTRAL VA. 
VISIBLE AND COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN W OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE E
OF THE MOUNTAINS.  STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS IN A
SWATH IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 
MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR OR
IMMEDIATELY W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND THAT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 08/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.