[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300546
SWODY1
SPC AC 300545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
AVL 50 S BLF 15 SSW SSU 35 NW MRB 20 ESE HGR 10 ENE DCA 35 SW RIC 30
SSW RDU 30 SSW SOP 15 NW CAE 20 SSW GSP 20 S AVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CHS 45 SE AGS 25 E ATL 20 E HSV 55 SW BNA 10 ENE OWB 30 SW DAY 10
NNE MFD 15 W BFD 30 SSE BGM 10 WSW ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB 45 W SEM 40
SW CBM 35 N GWO 35 WNW MEM 45 NNW POF 35 SSW DEC 25 SSW SBN 70 NNE
MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 65 ENE STC
20 ESE RST ALO 50 NNE FNB 20 SW BIE 15 SSE GLD 30 ENE PUB 40 W COS
30 NNE RKS 35 ESE WEY 40 NNW HVR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PER LATEST NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK
FROM SW OF BNA INTO WRN PA OR WRN NY BY 31/12Z.  ELSEWHERE...
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND CANADIAN ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
/INITIALLY FORMING OVER ERN MT/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

...CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PER NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANT KATRINA
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SW OF BNA INTO CNTRL KY BY
LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND JUST TO THE W OF OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO ERN
PA.  ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WILL
MAINTAIN BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1
KM SRH OF 200-500 M2/S2/ FROM LOW TRACK EWD INTO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION AND
ATLANTIC COAST...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED
WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.

OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...SUPERPOSITION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW AND
MID-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS WAS THE CASE ON
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND
STABILIZES.  NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS
ALONG AND E OF LOW TRACK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.

...NRN PLAINS...

DESPITE MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...STEEPENING LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER FAR ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY
AXIS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE W IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. 
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UP
AND DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.