[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300014
SWODY1
SPC AC 300012

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
MSL 15 WSW HSV 30 WSW CHA 30 E CHA 65 ESE CHA 30 NNW AHN 40 ENE MCN
35 SE MCN 35 E ABY 15 NW MGR 20 SSW DHN 40 SSW TOI 35 SSW MGM 15 SSE
0A8 50 S MSL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
PNS 65 SW SEM 40 SW TCL 15 ESE UOX 30 SSW MKL 25 NE MKL 15 S CKV 35
NNE CSV HSS 15 N SPA 30 NNW CAE 35 ESE CAE 35 ENE CHS ...CONT... 20
E JAX 25 WNW JAX 25 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CLE 10 ESE LUK
55 WNW HTS 15 SW PKB 15 ENE FKL 30 NE JHW 40 NW ROC ...CONT... 85 W
CAR 35 SW EPM ...CONT... 20 SW ELP 30 WNW ALM 30 SSE 4CR 40 SW CVS
45 NNE HOB 20 E BGS 50 NE ABI 20 NNW DUA 60 SE HRO 20 W MDH 35 SSW
HUF 35 E LAF 20 E AZO 30 WNW MBS 30 WSW APN 45 ENE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT
45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE
EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF AL AND
GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COAST AND TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL AL EWD INTO CNTRL
GA...E OF KATRINA CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL MS/W-CNTRL AL AS
OF 00Z.  REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA WITH 0-1 KM SRH 300-700
M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-70 KTS.  GREATEST THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 02-04Z OVER
MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE THIS REGION OF STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN
CO-LOCATED WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.

THEREAFTER...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER.  LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATRINA WILL
CONTINUE NWD INTO FAR NERN MS OR SWRN TN BY 30/12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WIND FIELDS DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE
WRN CAROLINAS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY MORE
DISCRETE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDS.

..MEAD.. 08/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.