[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291954
SWODY1
SPC AC 291953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
PFN 30 NW CEW 50 SW 0A8 25 ENE CBM 30 SSW MSL 20 ENE HSV 15 NW RMG
30 SE RMG 40 NW MCN 40 SSW MCN 25 SSE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
GPT 35 N GPT 40 WSW MEI TUP 35 WSW BNA 35 E BNA CSV 20 W TYS 45 S
TYS 40 SE AHN 65 E MCN 30 NE VLD 30 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 35 SW EPM
...CONT... 15 W CLE 15 SE LUK 55 SE LUK 25 SE UNI DUJ 30 NNW UCA MSS
...CONT... 75 E DUG 55 SE SOW 20 ENE GNT 35 NNE 4SL 35 SW ALS 35 ESE
ALS RTN 40 WNW TCC 40 SW CVS 45 NNE HOB BGS 25 WNW ABI ADM HRO 35
WNW MDH 35 SSW HUF 35 E LAF 20 E AZO 30 WNW MBS 40 ENE TVC 40 WNW
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT
45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE
EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL...WRN GA
AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FROM MS EWD INTO ERN GA AND AS FAR NORTH AS MIDDLE/ERN TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO CENTRAL MS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS CENTER WILL REACH AT LEAST THE
SRN TN BORDER BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF AL..WRN GA AND WRN FL PANHANDLE.

ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.

...MS/AL/GA/MIDDLE TN/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
AT MID AFTERNOON...SEVERAL N-S BANDS OF CONVECTION WERE STREAMING
RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN GA. VWP/S ACROSS THIS
AREA SHOW EXTREMELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...LONG CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25 TO 50 KT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S...MLCAPE VALUES WERE NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
THE EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AL/WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD OVERNIGHT AS KATRINA
MOVES NWD.

TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST EAST AND NORTH OF KATRINA/S CENTER
ACROSS ERN MS...NWRN AL...AND MIDDLE TN TONIGHT...WHERE THE MOST
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LESS TORNADO COVERAGE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER.

..IMY.. 08/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.