[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S
PNS 55 NE MOB 20 E MEI 20 SSE CBM 25 NNW TCL 20 WSW ANB 30 SSW CSG
10 E AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
GPT 30 WSW LUL 40 N TUP 40 WSW BNA 15 WSW CSV 40 NW AHN 55 NNW AYS
25 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 35 NNW SAD
55 ESE SOW 45 NW ONM 20 E 4SL 45 W RTN 15 N RTN 35 ESE RTN 25 W TCC
40 ESE PVW 30 SW FSI 50 SW TUL 40 NW POF 30 N SLO LAF 25 SSE GRR 40
SSE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT
45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE
EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL/SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN MS TO TN AND WRN GA....

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING NWD ACROSS MS...TO THE E OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS DEVELOPING SSEWD OVER TX.  WITHIN THE PRIMARY NRN
STREAM...ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE PAC
NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...THUS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AREA. A SEPARATE
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS NNEWD FROM KATRINA
TO THE OH VALLEY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF STATES.

...MS/AL/GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL MS BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND NE MS TONIGHT.  LOCAL VWP/S NE AND E OF THE
STORM CORE SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER A
BROAD AREA EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN GA. 
THE MORE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS CLOSER TO THE STORM CORE
ACROSS SW AL AND SRN MS...WHILE THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FARTHER E ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA/WRN
FL PANHANDLE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO
SRN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AL WHERE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS IN THE OUTER NERN BANDS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.