[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291203
SWODY1
SPC AC 291201

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
GPT 35 SW LUL 45 NNW MEI 10 ESE CBM 25 SE BHM 30 ENE TOI PFN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
HUM 15 N MCB 15 SSE MKL 15 WNW BNA 20 NW CSV 50 WNW AND 55 N AYS 25
WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 15 NW SAD
35 SSE GUP 15 E 4SL 30 NE LVS 40 ESE TCC 35 NNW CDS 30 N FSI 40 N
ADM FSM 20 E VIH 55 N DNV 65 N MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 10 SE BIL
50 E JAC 15 ENE OGD 55 SE ELY 30 SW U31 55 ESE 4LW 45 E DLS 75 NW
4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL
AL...SRN/ERN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...
HURRICANE KATRINA WAS MOVING ASHORE OVER FAR SERN LA AT 12Z AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MS WITH CENTER OF
SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE TN-MS-AL TRI STATE BORDER REGION BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. /REFERENCE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM NHC
FOR FURTHER INFO ON KATRINA'S TRACK AND SPECIFIC HURRICANE
INFORMATION./  WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE
EXPANSIVE WITH 90 KT WINDS AT 1 KM OBSERVED AT MOB YIELDING 0-1 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2.  0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 WAS
OBSERVED AS FAR EAST AS TLH THIS MORNING AS WELL.  IN
ADDITION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING TO REGENERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PRIMARY RAIN BANDS FROM
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL.  SHOULD THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE AS SYSTEM LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED THREAT OF TORNADOES ONCE HEATING COMMENCES GIVEN WEAKENING
CINH AND LOW LCLS.  THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS BROAD REGION OF
EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG HAS
REMAINED JUST OFF THE MS/AL COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING. 
HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 80S...THIS
ENHANCED SBCAPE AXIS IS SHIFTING NWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS
OF 12Z.  EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND AND
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES FROM THE MID/LATE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AL AND PART
OF SRN/ERN MS AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.  EVEN AFTER DARK...EXTREME
SHEAR ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUSTAIN AT LEAST A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES FARTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN
RIVER VALLEY.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 08/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.