[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SWODY1
SPC AC 281957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
7R4 30 E BTR 35 E MCB 45 NNW MOB 50 NW CEW 20 ENE CEW AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
MRF 35 W MRF 50 ESE ELP 30 ESE ONM 35 NNW 4CR 40 NNE 4CR 55 NNE ROW
45 ENE ROW 10 NNE INK 15 SE FST 35 ESE MRF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW DMN SAD SOW 50
WNW GUP 15 WSW FMN 50 NNE 4BL 15 S CNY 50 SSW BCE 20 S CDC CDC 20
ENE U24 PUC CAG 35 W LAR 20 NE LAR 35 NE CYS 30 NNW SNY 45 ENE SNY
45 ENE MCK 10 W EAR 15 NNE BBW 35 NNW BUB SUX DSM 25 N BRL 35 NE BMI
15 W DNV 10 NNW MTO 35 SSW DEC 10 NNE COU 50 SW SZL CNU 40 NNW BVO
20 S PNC 40 SSE PNC 35 WSW TUL 10 SW TUL 25 SW HRO ARG CGI 35 ENE
EVV 15 SW LUK 45 WSW UNI PKB MGW 20 SE AOO CXY 15 N PHL 15 SE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW OJC 25 E ICT
40 SW P28 35 SSW DDC 20 W DDC 25 SSW RSL 25 S CNK 45 N CNK 30 NW GRI
35 E BUB 25 W OFK 35 SW SUX 20 SW DSM OTM BRL 35 SW PIA 35 W SPI 40
SSW UIN 25 NNE SZL 35 SSW OJC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80
25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
STATES...

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST...
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST TO TURN NWD AND APPROACH
THE SERN LA/MS COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON...THE CLOSEST
OUTER BANDS TO LAND EXTENDED FROM THE MARSH LANDS IN EXTREME SERN LA
EWD TO SOUTH OF THE MS/AL COAST. AS KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THE OUTER BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
INTENSITY AND LARGE EXTENT OF THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DANGEROUS HURRICANE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN
RAIN BANDS FROM SERN LA EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

...ERN NEB/KS/MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED IN ERN NEB BETWEEN BUB AND OMA
AND MOVING SEWD. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY FEEDING THE STORMS HAS
SUPPORTED HAIL UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...THE
OUTFLOWS HAVE CONGEALED AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY INCREASE THE WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 750.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH FROM EAST OF DDC NEWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND 
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX...
AN MCV SE OF ABQ HAD AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM. SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING/MOVING SSEWD THROUGH THE SERN QUARTER OF NM THIS
AFTERNOON...REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK SEWED INTO FAR WRN TX OVERNIGHT WITH A
THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 06Z.

..IMY.. 08/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.