[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290050
SWODY1
SPC AC 290048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
HUM 30 N MSY 20 ENE LUL 40 SW SEM 25 S TOI 10 WNW MAI 35 ENE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 25 NE SVC 50
SSW GNT 30 NNE GUP 15 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 45 SSE 4FC 40 WNW AKO 20
ENE IML 30 WNW EAR 30 E GRI 20 S DSM 25 N BRL 35 NE BMI 15 W DNV 10
NNW MTO 35 SSW DEC COU 50 SSW SZL 40 NNE JLN 35 SW UMN 30 ESE FSM 10
NNW HOT 50 SW MEM 20 NW MDH 20 WSW BMG 45 NW LUK 20 S CMH 10 N PKB
25 NW EKN 20 NNW SHD 25 ESE CHO 35 NW ORF 35 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80
25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
GULF COAST...

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
INITIAL...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NE OF MSY TO NEAR MOB TO ABOUT 40 SW OF AQQ. 
LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITHIN THIS BAND NEAR MOB.  CURRENT VWPS FROM MOBILE AND NEW ORLEANS
SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES NOW APPROACHING 300-350 M2/S2.  AS
CENTER OF KATRINA NEARS THE SERN LA COAST OVERNIGHT...STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT WITHIN NERN QUADRANT OF
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD.

...SWRN TX...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED THIS EVENING OVER
REEVES AND WARD COUNTIES WITH A RECENT 69 KT GUST REPORTED AT PECOS.
00Z MAF SOUNDING IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF INFLOW AIR MASS WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
MODESTLY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL W-NW WINDS SHOULD AID IN MAINTENENCE
OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SEWD THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...NERN KS AND NWRN MO...
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS REGION. 
00Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BELOW 600 MB AND A MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. WHILE OBSERVED
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THIS MODERATE
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY MAY
SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2106.

..MEAD.. 08/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.