[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281629
SWODY1
SPC AC 281627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
HUM 10 N MSY 45 ESE MCB 45 ESE LUL 40 WSW TOI 20 SE DHN 25 ENE AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INK 25
E GDP 55 NNW GDP 45 SSE 4CR 25 E 4CR 65 ENE 4CR 30 WNW CVS 15 SSE
CVS 45 NNE HOB 20 NNE INK INK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
CNK 50 SSW EAR 35 SSW BBW 25 NNW BBW 30 N BUB 45 NNE BUB 40 WNW OMA
35 ESE OMA 30 W LWD 25 ENE STJ 10 WNW STJ 25 WNW CNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 45 NE TUS
25 ENE GBN 15 WSW PRC 10 SW INW 40 W GUP 50 SW CEZ 25 WNW CEZ 50 NNE
4BL 15 S CNY 30 S 4HV 35 NNW PGA 50 SSW BCE 10 SSW CDC 40 ENE MLF 40
ESE U24 15 W PUC 30 S VEL 15 N CAG 30 WNW FCL 20 NNW MHN 25 W YKN 35
NNE SUX 10 ENE DSM 30 SSE MLI 25 S CGX 25 ESE SBN 30 WSW FWA 25 S
DNV ALN 25 ENE JEF 20 SE OJC 25 ENE CNU 15 NNE BVO 50 WSW TUL 25 SSE
OKC 35 NNW MWL 10 WSW FTW 20 NE DAL PRX 45 ESE FSM 15 SW POF 35 NNE
PAH 35 SSE BMG DAY 35 WSW MFD 35 SW CAK 25 SSW PKB 20 ESE CRW 20 WNW
SSU 35 W SHD 40 W CXY BGM 35 SSE SLK 30 NNE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80
25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE NEB AREA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NM....

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TONIGHT...
THE OUTER NRN BANDS OF HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE
LA DELTA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE PROGRESSES NWWD.  GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND
BREADTH OF THE WIND FIELD WITH KATRINA...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES BY TONIGHT FROM SE LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

...ERN NEB AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM
CENTRAL/WRN SD TOWARD CENTRAL AND ERN NEB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS E-W ALONG THE
MO/IA BORDER TO A WEAK LOW IN SE NEB...AND THEN NWWD TO N CENTRAL
NEB.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NW.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/LARGE MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. 
ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS THIS EVENING
WHILE MOVING SEWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

...SE NM AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO S
CENTRAL TX...WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE/CLOUDY AREA IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX.  W OF THE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT STRONG SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR
60 F.  THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER CENTRAL NM...AND THIS WAVE WILL
REACH SE NM THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SPLITTING STORMS WITH S TO SSE MOVING SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.