[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281233
SWODY1
SPC AC 281232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
HUM 20 NW MSY 30 SE MCB 25 SSW LUL 50 S SEM MAI 35 SSW TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 SSW SOW
70 SE PGA 10 N U17 25 ENE CNY 25 ESE 4FC MHN 25 W YKN 35 NNE SUX 30
NW PIA 45 SSE UIN 35 WNW TUL 40 WSW MLC 35 WSW PGO 60 E FSM ARG 40
NNW HOP 15 E SDF 20 W DAY 25 ENE LAF 35 SW SBN 35 SSW OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WNW FCA 30 NNW S80
20 E BNO 60 W BNO 45 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AS CAT-5 HURRICANE KATRINA TURNS MORE NWD AND APPROACHES THE SERN LA
COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...OUTER RAIN SQUALLS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  KATRINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LARGE...WITH
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.  THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE OVER THIS SAME REGION.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...AS REGION REMAINS UNDER MODEST NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA.  THOUGH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO
SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPES GIVEN AUGUST AFTERNOON HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
SEWD ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DEEP NLY WINDS EVIDENT ON
PROFILERS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.  IF WINDS CAN RESPOND TO APPROACHING SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...THEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. 
ATTM REMAIN SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL ABOUT HOW RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AND
WILL OPT TO LEAVE LOW PROBABILITIES... THOUGH UPGRADE TO SLGT MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS INTO ERN NM/FAR WRN TX.

FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY ALONG A NERN NEB INTO NERN
CO LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY
MOIST...THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRIER. 
THIS MAY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE FRONT.

...TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH...
WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN IN PLACE.  THOUGH OVERALL SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STRONG
HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST STRONGER CELLS SHOULD
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET-MICROBURSTS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 08/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.