[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270546
SWODY1
SPC AC 270544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MSS 40 ESE UCA
20 NNW PHL 35 NNW RIC 35 W GSO ANB 0A8 25 NW LUL 50 SSW LUL 30 E MOB
MGR FLO GSB 20 E ECG ...CONT... 15 SE FHU SAD 35 ENE SOW 85 ESE PGA
35 NE MLF 55 WSW BPI 40 SE RIW 35 NNW CYS 30 NNW MCK GRI 40 S OMA
TOP 35 NE ICT 40 NE OKC 30 NNW MLC 35 WNW UNO DEC 40 NNE CGX 10 WNW
MTW AUW BJI 80 N GFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SRN CA...WITH RIDGE EWD ACROSS NRN TX TO
GA -- WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT IN ITS VICINITY THROUGH PERIOD.  DOMINANT NRN STREAM
FEATURE WILL REMAIN SLOW-MOVING/STACKED/OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER
MB...WHICH THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT SEWD INTO PARTS OF
NWRN ONT N OF LS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY EXTENDING SWD FROM THAT LOW TO LOWER MO VALLEY -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- REINFORCED ON WRN END BY OUTFLOWS
FROM PRIOR/ONGOING CONVECTION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT
LAKES...SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...AND SLOWLY SWD OVER RED RIVER
AREA.  SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER SRN PLAINS IS WEAKENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO...LEAVING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE FCST TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS NEB/KS.

...ERN GREAT LAKES TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON
OVER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
FROM TN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS.  GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS MAY BE INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS...WHERE ASSOCIATED LIFT
AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP MOST
RAPIDLY.

OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL UPON YET UNDEFINED MESOSCALE PROCESSES ATTM TO DEFINE
CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE BROAD SWATH OF MARGINAL
PROBABILITIES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RICH ACROSS MOST
OF THIS REGION...THOUGH CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
NARROW OVER MI/OH BECAUSE OF ELY COMPONENT AND SOMEWHAT LOWER THETAE
TRAJECTORIES FROM NERN CONUS RIDGING.  SFC DEW POINTS 70S F FROM
ARKLATEX REGION TO OH VALLEY WILL YIELD MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
DURING AFTERNOON.  BUOYANCY MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITH WWD EXTENT
ACROSS SRN PLAINS BECAUSE OF DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOWER
SFC DEW POINTS...HOWEVER...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ALSO CAN SERVE
TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS ENTIRE FRONTAL CORRIDOR WILL BE
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN LOW AND/OR MIDLEVEL FLOW.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE MORE SUITABLE FOR MULTICELLS AND
SHORT-LIVED/SLOW-MOVING BOWS THAN EITHER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OR
PROGRESSIVE/COLD POOL DRIVEN MCS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
POCKETS OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT...SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS KS/NEB INVOF SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
 THIS AREA SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPEST MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALOFT OF ANY AREAS WITH APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  SOME
PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IF PRESENT
OBSERVATIONAL AND PROGGED TRENDS IN MOISTURE AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTINUE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SMALL...BUT WITH
STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND AFTERNOON MLCAPES POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES.

...FL KEYS...
MARGINAL/SHORT-LIVED TORNADO POSSIBILITY EXISTS DURING FIRST FEW
HOURS OF PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS WELL E OF CENTER OF
DEPARTING HURRICANE KATRINA.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH MARKEDLY AS HURRICANE HEADS TOWARD CENTRAL GULF...CLOSING
ANY TC-RELATED TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS S FL.  REF NHC BULLETINS --
I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- FOR TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND
WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ON KATRINA.

..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 08/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.