[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260551
SWODY1
SPC AC 260549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
HRO MKO GAG GCK BBW BUB SUX 45 WSW FOD DSM P35 40 NNE COU SLO PAH 25
NNE DYR 50 SE HRO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
PIE 35 SW ORL MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BUF AOO SSU
TCL MEI 35 ENE MOB MAI 30 NW SAV 30 N HSE ...CONT... 10 NW LRD SAT
30 N AUS 30 WNW ACT SEP 35 ENE ABI 55 WNW ABI BGS 35 NE FST 55 SSW
P07 ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 NNE FHU 55 SSW GNT 30 SSW FMN 4HV PUC
45 SW VEL 55 WSW LAR 40 NNE CDR 30 WNW MHE 35 E AXN 15 NW INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS TO
OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SRN CONUS RIDGE IS FCST TO WEAKEN ON ERN END
AND BUILD ACROSS SWRN CONUS...RESULTING IN PRIMARY HIGH ALOFT BEING
LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL S AND
SE OF NRN STREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL PORTION SK/MB BORDER.  LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
-- NOW OVER MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND
OVER QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT SHOULD LIE ACROSS NRN NEB. 
FARTHER NE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARK REGION...
SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITHIN BROAD OUTLOOK REGION.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS
SPECIFIC LOCATION OF GREATEST POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS BROAD OUTLOOK
AREA.  SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE FOCI WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON EVOLUTION OF
CURRENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND
GEOMETRY/PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  MODELS ALSO
INDICATE POCKET OF RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR --
UNDISTURBED BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ITS S AND E -- ACROSS
PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON.

WHERE NOT DEEPLY OVERTURNED/STABILIZED BY PRIOR MCS
ACTIVITY...EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S AND STRONG SFC HEATING
BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPES 2000-3000
J/KG.  WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED...BENEATH ABOUT 30-40 KT 500
MB WINDS...ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS YIELDS SMALL LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN FCST SOUNDINGS. E-W OR
NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOWS MAY LOCALLY BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE
SHEAR/LIFT AS WELL.  ONE OR TWO PRIMARY MCS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND MOVE EWD TO SEWD...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING
MAIN THREAT AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- REGARDING
FCST TRACK/INTENSITY AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ON  KATRINA.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL
THROUGH EARLY PERIOD AS CENTER MOVES FARTHER INTO GULF...SUPPORTING
INNER-BAND TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT COVERAGE/NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC TSTMS.  PERIPHERAL/OUTER-BAND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING DAY AS WELL.  LACK OF
AMBIENT/MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONES -- TO EITHER FOCUS OR RESTRICT
SFC-BASED SUPERCELL OCCURRENCE -- SHIFTS LIKELY EMPHASIS TO MESOBETA
SCALE PROCESSES THAT ARE YET TO DEVELOP.  MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS
FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR POCKETS OF ENHANCED DIURNAL
HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE...ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS...AMIDST LARGE AMBIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC
FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTS.  PRIND
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER THAN
FARTHER S...IN REGIME OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER
THETAE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT. 
HOWEVER...MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH
MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF FRONT...FROM
MIDAFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
THEREAFTER AS SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WEAKENS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.