[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261954
SWODY1
SPC AC 261953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
LIT 55 NW MLC 35 W CSM 20 SW GAG ICT 10 NE EMP 30 S OJC 15 WSW TBN
55 NW POF 15 NW MDH 15 E SLO 25 NE EVV 35 W BWG 25 NE MKL 10 N MEM
25 N LIT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 50 NNE FHU
55 SSW GNT 30 SSW FMN 50 WNW 4HV 30 SSE SLC 25 SE EVW 20 WSW CYS 30
N GLD 50 WNW CNK LNK 25 N MKT 60 ENE STC 30 NW ELO ...CONT... 25 NW
BUF 25 NW MRB 20 E ROA 25 WNW HKY 20 NE RMG 15 ENE TCL 25 E MEI 45
NNE MOB 15 WNW CEW 10 S MAI 40 ENE MGR 15 NW SAV 25 N HSE ...CONT...
25 WNW DRT 65 ENE P07 50 SW SJT 25 ENE SJT BWD 35 SE SEP 40 NNW ACT
FTW 50 NW MWL 50 NW ABI BGS 35 NE FST 50 SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...IL/IND/KY...

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS AIDED IN STRONG SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO SRN IND/WRN KY SHORTLY...ALTHOUGH
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTAINING SEVERE UPDRAFTS.  EVEN SO...MOMENTUM OF ONGOING
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND THREAT.

...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK...

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN KS INVOF
AGITATED NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THESE MID
LEVEL UPDRAFTS SHOULD COUPLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND ROOT
INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 3000 MLCAPE.  WLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT JUST BENEATH THE EL LAYER WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT VENTING ALOFT FOR AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO NRN AR/NERN OK LATE.

UPSTREAM...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO
NWRN OK.  WITH 20-25KT MID LEVEL FLOW...MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 08/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.