[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260114
SWODY1
SPC AC 260112

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GCK 50
SE LIC 40 WNW LBF 15 SSE AIA 55 ENE DGW 40 NW HON 40 NE ABR 50 SW
BJI BRD SPW LWD OJC 25 NW CNU ICT GCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
MIA 20 WNW PBI 25 WNW MLB 20 NW DAB 45 SSE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GLS SAT 20 ESE
BWD 50 ESE SPS 55 NW MLC 30 SSW PNC 15 SSE GAG 45 N AMA 25 WSW MAF
55 SSW P07 ...CONT... 30 SE YUM DRA 50 NE ELY RKS 50 NW RIW 4BQ MBG
ABR 35 WNW RRT ...CONT... 10 NW IWD 40 NW LSE 15 SSW DBQ SBN DAY JKL
TYS HSV BHM AUO 40 ENE ABY 50 NNE AYS 35 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL ERN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER MOST OF CONUS IS DOMINATED BY
ZONALLY ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING FROM
OFFSHORE SRN CA EWD ACROSS NRN TX AND SC.  PRINCIPAL NRN STREAM
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE STACKED/OCCLUDED CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN
SFC ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN SASK AND WRN MB. 
EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MB THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.

ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- EVIDENT AT 23Z FROM NWRN MN SWWD
ACROSS S-CENTRAL SD AND ERN WY -- WILL MOVE EWD SLOWLY OVER NRN MN
AND SEWD ACROSS NRN NEB AND ERN SD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
REF WW 745 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST SHORT-TERM
INFO FROM NRN NEB THRU W-CENTRAL MN.  PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR ATY...HON...ANW...AIA HAS BEEN PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EWD AND SEWD OFF THAT BOUNDARY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL.  MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT...AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SWD...ACROSS PREFRONTAL ARAS OF SD/NEB/KS.

OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS WITH STRONG COLD POOL IS EVIDENT IN
REFLECTIVITY DATA...SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS ERN CO. 
STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COOLING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW POOL TO SURGE EWD INTO MORE OF SWRN NEB AND
PORTIONS WRN KS.  REF SPC WW 744 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER
2079 FOR LATEST GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA AND DOWNSTREAM.

EXPECT ONE OR TWO PRIMARY MCS TO PERSIST AND MOVE EWD OR ESEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN KS AND SRN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. 
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN THREAT WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE.
NRN KS PORTION MAY BE FAVORED FOR PROPAGATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY
BECAUSE OF PROXIMITY TO VERY MOIST/35-40 KT SWLY LLJ PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN KS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE.

...FL E COAST...
REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION AS KATRINA
TRACKS SLOWLY INLAND OVER S FL.  MLB VWP INDICATES INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SRH WITH TIME FOR TYPICAL STORM MOTIONS IN FAVORED
PERIPHERAL/NERN QUADRANT -- WHICH STILL LIES OFFSHORE. LACK OF
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SMALL/RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS HAS
BEEN NOTED WELL OFFSHORE DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS.  GREATEST SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY AT NIGHT WILL BE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH THETAE AIR MASS OVER
AND JUST DOWNWIND FROM GULF STREAM...BUT GIVEN DEEP/MOIST LAPSE
RATES...WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. 
THEREFORE...PRIND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CLUSTERED OR ORGANIZED TORNADO EVENT IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH 12Z.
BECAUSE OF SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN BOTH
FAVORABLE SHEAR AMD BUOYANCY WITH DISTANCE FROM ATLANTIC
COAST...TORNADO PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WWD FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.