[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
DDC 15 ENE LAA 45 ESE FCL 40 NNE CYS 45 WSW CDR 45 NE CDR 30 NE HON
45 NE BKX 20 SSE RWF 15 S FOD 20 SSW P35 MKC 25 NW CNU 25 SW ICT 30
SSW DDC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 40 E COT
30 S TPL 30 SSE FTW 40 NW ADM 30 ENE CSM 35 W CSM 50 NNE BGS 75 NE
P07 50 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 30 E DAG 50 NNW P38 10 W BPI 10
NE WRL 15 N GCC 35 S REJ 45 SE BIS 75 N GFK ...CONT... 20 SE CMX 35
SE CWA 25 NNW MKE SBN 15 NW MFD HLG 20 W EKN 40 SSW PSK 15 S AVL 45
NNE ATL 30 SSE ATL 30 ESE MCN 35 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SW FLOW AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO. THE ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING IN SE WY AND ACROSS NE CO.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS
CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS. LOWER TO
MID 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KB IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST AS STORMS
INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST FROM NW KS
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND NW KS. SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONG
MULTICELL STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ACROSS NEB MOVING THE SYSTEM SEWD INTO NE KS OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AND A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH
INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A DECREASE LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN AND CNTRL FL...
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN FL
COAST. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER BRINGS KATRINA INTO SRN FL
TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SHOW THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
THE CENTER OF KATRINA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 KT SUGGESTING THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH THE TORNADO THREAT PERSISTING
THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.