[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251641
SWODY1
SPC AC 251640

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP
HUT 35 SSW HLC 25 NE GLD 35 S SNY 20 NW SNY 20 NW AIA 45 ENE AIA VTN
9V9 25 SSW ATY 50 E ATY 25 NNW RWF 25 NNW FRM FOD 30 WSW DSM 20 SSW
P35 10 SSE OJC EMP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CMX 35 ESE CWA
30 SSW MKE 25 WNW SBN 25 S CLE 20 SE PIT 25 S EKN 50 E CHA 25 WSW
ATL 75 ESE MCN 35 SSW CRE ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM 10 E EDW 35
N NID 60 SSE ELY 50 ESE DPG 40 NW RIW 10 NE GCC 35 ENE REJ 35 NNE
BIS 60 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 35 E COT
30 SSE TPL 40 W TYR 25 NE PRX 30 ENE MLC 50 ENE OKC 35 WNW OKC 20
WNW LTS 50 ESE LBB 25 SSE INK 60 SSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN MID/UPPER AIR FEATURE IS THE STRONG LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SWD AND SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN
ROCKIES.  ALSO...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF STATES WITH T.S. KATRINA EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
FL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
ERN ND SWD/SWWD THRU CENTRAL SD INTO SRN WY.  ALSO...SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE ACROSS SWRN MO INTO S CENTRAL AND WRN KS. 
MODELS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS FROM PARTS OF SD INTO KS...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TIGHTENING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK TO NEAR 40 KTS AT MID LEVELS...AND 60 KT AT UPPER LEVELS. 
MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS BAND OF 30-40 KT SWLY WINDS ACROSS WRN
TX INTO SWRN KS...WHICH THE MODELS EXTEND INTO CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO PROMOTE ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB INTO NRN KS. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL NEB WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
NERN CO.  THIS CONFLICTS WITH THE MODEL FORECAST WHERE MAXIMUM
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG.

THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR
FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING AN MCS OVERNIGHT AFFECTING CENTRAL
KS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE
UVVS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WHERE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL PENINSULA...

SEE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY TPC ON T.S. KATRINA. 
SOME WEAK SHEAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LIMITING ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF STRENGTHENING ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 08/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.