[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251259
SWODY1
SPC AC 251257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP
RSL HLC 25 SSW MCK 20 SW IML 30 ENE FCL CYS 55 SSE DGW 35 NNW BFF 45
ENE AIA VTN 9V9 FAR 30 SSE TVF 35 E BJI MSP FOD DSM 25 ESE P35 30
ESE OJC EMP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CMX 35 ESE CWA
30 SSW MKE 10 SE CGX 25 S CLE 20 SE PIT 25 S EKN 40 ENE CHA 25 WSW
ATL 60 N AYS 15 ESE CHS ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 35 E COT 35 SSE TPL 30
S TYR 15 SSW TXK 25 WNW PGO 40 WSW TUL 35 S END 25 NNW LTS 55 E LBB
30 SW INK 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM 10 E EDW 35 N
NID 60 SSE ELY 50 ESE DPG 40 NW RIW 25 SW GCC 35 S Y22 45 ENE BIS 75
NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CNTRL STATES...WHILE
SASKATCHEWAN UPR LOW...NEARLY CUTOFF FROM TRUE NRN STREAM JET
FARTHER TO THE N...CONTINUES TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY ENE.  SETUP WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE WSW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL SPEEDS
RANGING FROM NEAR 30 KTS IN KS TO ABOVE 60 KTS IN ND.

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL
AS TRAILING COLD FRONT...ATTM EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN ND THROUGH
CNTRL SD/NW NEB AND SRN WY...CONTINUES SLOWLY E INTO MN...SE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NEB...AND S ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FARTHER S...EXPANSIVE/SLOWLY-MOVING OVERNIGHT MCS IN KS/MO HAS LEFT
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM WRN IL ACROSS SW
MO/NE OK/S CNTRL AND CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB.  THE WRN AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NE LATER TODAY.

...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
SURFACE HEATING...CONTINUED INFLOW OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WSWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/ OVER PARTS OF THE NEB AND KS
TODAY. THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR S OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND INVOF WRN PART OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LEFT BY KS/MO MCS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM SW MN/ERN SD SWD INTO NEB...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING IN MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SE WY AND THE
NEB PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN MO INTO SRN IL/WRN KY.

DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST...RANGING FROM AROUND 30
KTS IN KS TO 40 KTS IN WY AND SD...BUT AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND FOCUSED NATURE OF
CONVERGENCE FIELD...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS IN CNTRL/ERN NEB...AND IN UPSLOPE
REGIME OVER THE HI PLNS...MAY ALSO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES BOTH AREAS.

COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT FRONTAL UPLIFT...MOISTURE INFLOW AND
EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE
CNTRL PLNS STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCSS.
 THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL NEB/N CNTRL KS E/SE INTO ERN KS/WRN
MO AND PERHAPS FAR SW IA. WIND PROFILES AND HI PWS IN THIS REGION
WILL FAVOR ECHO TRAINING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WET
MICROBURSTS.

...FL PENINSULA/T.S. KATRINA...
OFFSETTING FACTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL/SUB CATEGORICAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS ERN FL RELATED TO T.S. KATRINA.  LATEST
TPC FCST IS FOR KATRINA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST OF S FL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN FL AFTER 26/00Z...BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER 26/06Z AS MIDDLE/OUTER PART OF NERN QUADRANT OF
CIRCULATION BEGINS TO AFFECT LAND.

A FEW DISCRETE MINI SUPERCELLS MAY FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
MOVE ONSHORE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. BUT WV IMAGERY AND THE LATEST /12Z/ RAOBS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL NOT OCCUR
ON WRN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  COUPLED WITH AN
ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES OVER THE PENINSULA FOR KATRINA
TO INTERACT WITH...AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY RELATIVE TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE RELATIVELY LOW.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.