[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241956
SWODY1
SPC AC 241955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
LBL 25 SSE RSL 25 E SLN 25 NNE EMP 45 ENE CNU 35 S JLN 45 WSW MKO 15
NNE FSI 60 WNW CSM 40 E LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
RRT 35 WNW FAR 20 SE ABR 20 SW 9V9 45 SE RAP 40 SSE REJ 25 E DIK 60
NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE
RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 35 E U24 45 SSE EVW 45 NW RWL 25
SSE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 WSW INL
30 NNW RST 35 WSW BRL 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10
SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 35 SSE DRT 30 NNW HDO 60 SSE
BWD 25 W SEP 20 NNE ABI 25 NE BGS 40 NE FST 70 S MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS KS AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...KS/OK...

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...APPROACHING 2IN...PERSIST
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL OK INTO SRN
KS.  WITH INHIBITION NOW WEAKENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE
AND OK...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH 3500-4000J/KG COMMON. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD FOR A WHILE BEFORE A MORE EWD
MOVEMENT OCCURS WITH STORM MATURATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCED BY A SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT NOTED IN LOWER
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.  LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER THIS EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME...APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC...IS
SPREADING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WY INTO WRN SD.  OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN WITHIN THIS
PLUME AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN
SPREAD NEWD GIVEN STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 
AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER
THE DAKOTAS...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED
IN THE LARGE SCALE BY SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 08/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.