[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250112
SWODY1
SPC AC 250110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DDC
SLN MHK TOP 25 ESE OJC JLN 25 WNW TUL LTS 40 ENE AMA DDC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
RRT GFK 45 NE ABR 9V9 RAP Y22 10 WNW BIS 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP SAT ACT
DAL 55 N FTW SPS 40 NE FST 60 SW MRF ...CONT... 30 SW IPL TRM DAG 55
ENE NID DRA 35 NW P38 U24 45 SSE EVW LND WRL 35 S SHR REJ 40 NW Y22
70 NW MOT ...CONT... 40 NNE RRT BKX SUX CGI 15 S CKV CSV TYS HSS 30
SE CLT SOP 20 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SRN/SERN CONUS PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD
ANTICYCLONE...CENTERED OVER MS DELTA REGION.  MEANWHILE SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FEATURES TWO PROMINENT CYCLONES -- FIRST OVER
GULF OF MAINE AND SECOND CENTERED OVER SWRN SASK...BASED ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AND LATEST AVAILABLE RAOB DATA.  WEAK/POSITIVELY
TILTED PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS...EJECTING NEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY.

WEAK SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL ND THROUGH
CENTRAL/SWRN SD TO ERN/CENTRAL WY -- SHOULD DRIFT EWD AND SEWD
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS PARENT SFC CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND BECOMES
MORE VERTICAL STACKED WITH SASK UPPER VORTEX. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS
ANALYZED FROM NEB PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS ERN CO. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM SERN OK NWWD
ACROSS NWRN OK TO SWRN KS.  DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
FROM MO OZARKS WWD ACROSS SRN KS.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS CONTINUES FROM PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO
CENTRAL KS...THOUGH RISK OVER TX PORTION MAY BE ON THE WANE.  REF
REMAINDER WW 742 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST
NOWCAST INFORMATION.

ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK
BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
REMAIN.  SFC THETAE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH NWD EXTENT FM NRN
OK INTO NRN KS...CROSSING THROUGH TWO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES. 
HOWEVER...MOIST LLJ WILL DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS NWRN OK AND
CENTRAL/ERN KS...NEARLY DOUBLING TO AROUND 40 KT AND ENHANCING
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. 
GIVEN SEASONALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM OBSERVED AT
AMA/DDC THIS EVENING...JUXTAPOSED ATOP RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PARCELS MAY BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS.

...NRN PLAINS...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS REMAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING -- BOTH
IN ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY NEWLY FORMED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
ND AND ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP IN PLUME OF UNSTABLE AIR
COVERED BY OUTLOOK.  LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLY STEEP OVER MUCH OF
THIS REGION --I.E. 8-9 DEG C/KM IN BIS 700-500 MB LAYER...THOUGH
SBCINH APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY FOR ONLY A FEW DEG C OF
SFC DIABATIC COOLING.  STILL...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION
INCREASES OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL -- AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. 
FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS FOR SUPERCELL AND BOW MODES...ESPECIALLY
FROM NRN SD NWD.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS INDICATE ELEVATED
MUCAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND.

..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.