[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241644
SWODY1
SPC AC 241642

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
GCK 20 W RSL 20 ENE SLN 20 NNW EMP 45 ENE CNU 35 S JLN 45 SW TUL 50
WSW END 40 NW GAG 20 ENE GCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
RRT 20 N FAR 50 NE ABR 20 SSW HON 35 NNE VTN 50 SW MBG 35 W BIS 55
NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT 30 NNW HDO
60 SSE BWD 25 W SEP 20 NNE ABI 25 NE BGS 40 NE FST 70 S MRF
...CONT... CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC
35 E U24 45 SSE EVW 45 NW RWL 25 SSE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT
25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 WSW INL 30 NNW RST 35 WSW BRL 30 S STL 15 S
CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND SD....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK....

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER MT/SASK BORDER WILL MOVE
EWD AND NEWD INTO S CENTRAL ALBERTA DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVANCES
OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS BUILD THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PLAINS
THRU THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NRN
GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING SWD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY.  COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER INTO CENTRAL WY...WHILE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGHING IS FROM THE ERN NC SHORES WWD
THRU CENTRAL GA/AL/MS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
WEAKENING MCS CLUSTERS...ONE OVER SERN KS THE OTHER OVER NWRN OK. 
THE SERN KS MCS HAS LEFT IMPRESSIVE BAND OF GRAVITY WAVES OVER NWRN
AR AND NERN OK WHICH MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AR THIS AFTERNOON.

...ND/SD...

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY
EARLY TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO ERN ND BY END OF THE PERIOD AND
EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN WY.  RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED ONE JET STREAK
FROM W CENTRAL WY INTO CENTRAL ND WHICH IS REFLECTED AS WELL AT H70
BRINGING WELL MIXED AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT
BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED NEWD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 
SECOND LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF
THE TX /OK PANHANDLE AND WRN KS NWD INTO ERN ND CREATING A
CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ND AREA AIDING UVVS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER N CENTRAL ND.

AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER CENTRAL SD INTO S CENTRAL ND AT
THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
LIMITED HEATING ACROSS ND...BUT INCREASED HEATING OVER WRN SD AHEAD
OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ENOUGH FOR A LINE OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FAVORABLE LOW/MID
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH NEAR 35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
THUS...ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE AROUND 7.5-8.0 C/KM.

...PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK...

CURRENTLY STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE.  AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 J/KG FROM SERN KS SWD INTO W CENTRAL OK. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 6 C/KM MAINLY DUE TO CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT SELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS ALSO LEAD TO SOME
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT WEAK
ROTATION/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY.  THUS...GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 IN...WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.