[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241249
SWODY1
SPC AC 241248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
EHA 55 NNW GCK 10 NW RSL 10 SSE EMP 15 S CNU 15 SE BVO 20 SSW END
GAG 20 SSW LBL 45 NNE EHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
RRT 15 N GFK ABR 10 NE PIR 10 ENE RAP REJ 35 SSW P24 65 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 20 SE MKT 35
SSW ALO 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW
RDU 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 65 NW LRD 55 NNW SAT 30 E SEP 20 N MWL 50
WSW SPS 75 SSW CDS 20 NNW MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30
NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 45 SE U24 45 S EVW 45 NNW
RWL 30 SE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 35 NNE HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT NRN RCKYS UPR LOW HAS REACHED MAXIMUM
AMPLIFICATION AND SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NE INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN
LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS E FROM
ERN MT INTO WRN ND.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH RCKYS LOW ATTM EXTENDS
FROM ERN MT ACROSS NW WY INTO NRN NV.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD  CONTINUE
SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REACH A CNTRL
ND/WRN SD/CNTRL WY AXIS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER OVER ERN UT.  BOTH OF THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE NEWD AND WEAKEN TODAY.  A BIT FARTHER SE...DIFFUSE SURFACE
FRONT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SRN KS/NRN OK ESE INTO THE LWR TN
VLY.

...DAKOTAS...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE...AND EXISTING
CAP...EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEADING EDGE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS UPR LOW FINALLY REACHES
ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT.

A RICH BUT RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOOSTING
MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG.  BAND OF STRONGEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY
WILL  REMAIN W OF FRONT.  BUT EXPECTED 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.

SHARP LINEAR FORCING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND ITS ORIENTATION
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL QUICKLY MERGE INTO BANDS. STRENGTH OF SHEAR...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENT NATURE OF UPR LEVEL FLOW ALL SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND
HAIL.  THIS THREAT MAY REACH FAR WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN KS/NRN OK...
SMALL MCS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION INVOF DIFFUSE FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM 
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT HAS MOVED BEYOND LLJ AXIS AND
LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN/REDEVELOP FARTHER W BY MIDDAY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE MCS...AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
FRONT OVER REGION...LIKELY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS HEATING DESTABILIZES AIRMASS AND LLJ
ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

EWD MOTION OF RCKYS UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EXISTING SRN BRANCH JET OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...WITH MID LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AOB 20 KTS.  BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND GOOD FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND OVER PARTS OF KS/NRN OK.

OVERNIGHT...LLJ SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND ALLOW
DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS.  HIGH PWS MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE CLUSTER MOVES E/SE
TOWARD SW MO BY 12Z THURSDAY.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.