[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240604
SWODY1
SPC AC 240602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
EHA 55 NNW GCK 10 NW RSL 10 SSE EMP 15 S CNU 15 SE BVO 20 SSW END
GAG 20 SSW LBL 45 NNE EHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW
RRT 15 N GFK ABR 10 NE PIR 10 ENE RAP REJ 35 SSW P24 65 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W COT 40 NNW SAT
30 E SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 WSW SPS 70 SSW CDS 10 NE MAF 70 S MRF
...CONT... CZZ 10 NE RAL 40 WNW PMD 25 WSW NID 40 WSW DRA 25 ENE SGU
20 WNW 4HV 45 SSE EVW 55 ESE RIW 55 ESE WRL 25 E BIL 40 NNW BIL 45
SSE GTF 45 SSE CTB 35 N CTB ...CONT... 35 E INL 15 WNW STC 25 SE FRM
45 SSW ALO 35 ESE IRK POF 50 N HSV 40 SW TYS 25 WNW HSS TRI 55 N HKY
15 E HKY 25 ENE CLT 30 SSW RDU 20 S ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN KS / NRN
OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE ALOFT THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST WILL BE A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT/ID.  THIS FEATURE -- ACCOMPANIED BY A
70 KT JET AT MID-LEVELS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE -- WILL MOVE EWD WITH
TIME...WITH TROUGH AXIS REACHING SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD LIE FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD
INTO WRN SD AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WITH BOTH STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECT TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...THE DAKOTAS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL AND
WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND CAP WEAKENS WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WWD AS NRN WY ALONG
BOUNDARY...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE -- AND TO SOME DEGREE INTENSITY.  

STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /70 KT JET AT MID-LEVELS/ WILL REMAIN ON THE
COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT INVOF FRONTAL ZONE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
STORMS...WITH 35 TO 45 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS EXPECTED ABOVE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.  STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEARLY-ORGANIZED RATHER
QUICKLY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
EWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING PARTS OF WRN MN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  

...SRN KS/NRN OK...
THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN KS ATTM WILL LIKELY BE
LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NRN OK AT THE START OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY DIMINISHES.

HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REINFORCE BAROCLINIC
ZONE NOW LYING ACROSS SERN CO/OK/N TX...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD
SHIELD/COLD POOL.  

MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION /15
TO 20 KT/...BUT ASSUMING AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCEMENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ELY FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY VEERING TO WLY
WITH HEIGHT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/A FEW ROTATING
STORMS.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA.

OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...LIKELY MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THOUGH SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE WITH TIME...VEERING JET MAY SUPPORT AN
EWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER/MCS...PERHAPS REACHING THE OZARKS REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 08/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.