[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231638
SWODY1
SPC AC 231636

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
RAP 60 ENE CDR 15 SSE MCK 35 S RSL 20 SW P28 15 SE LBL 45 NW EHA 10
ESE LHX 40 ENE FCL 55 NW BFF 40 S RAP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 60 WNW EED
30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 N
BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD P35 40 WSW STL 20 E
MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN 10 S ACY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30
SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR
40 N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NERN
U.S. AND ANOTHER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND NRN
ROCKIES.  HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS N-S OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE PREDOMINANT RIDGE...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...LIES
FROM TX EWD OVER THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
FROM SERN NC WWD THRU CENTRAL GA...CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS.  ALSO
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANOTHER
NIGHT OF ACTIVITY THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF
CO/KS THAT IS MOVING INTO NRN AND CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATED TWO WEAK LOWS...ONE OVER
SERN CO ANOTHER NEAR/AROUND DENVER.  FIRST PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING HEATING POTENTIAL OVER SWRN KS INTO SERN CO. 
SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT REVEAL UPSLOPE FLOW YET DUE TO THE AIR MASS
STILL BEING WORKED OVER FROM SEVERAL NIGHTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
NAM MODEL HOWEVER SAYS MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW GETTING ITS ACT
TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER ERN CO. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT FREEZING LEVELS ARE AT 13K FEET AGL...TOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT HAIL.  NO DOUBT THAT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AND E CENTRAL CO.  THEN...FORM INTO AN
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN...AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER WRN
KS.  MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH
MID LEVELS BEING NEAR 7C/KM.  THIS WOULD INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
INITIALLY THIS EVENING.

...SERN VA AND NC INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...

CLOUDINESS INITIALLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SERN VA WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AS NAM DEVELOPS WEAK LOW ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  AIR MASS REMAINS THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE MOSTLY ALONG
COASTAL NC /500-1500 J/KG/ AND MODELS SHOWING THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL
NC BEING AROUND 500 J/KG AT BEST.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS NLY/NELY FLOW N OF A LINE FROM E CENTRAL NC INTO NWRN
SC...WITH THE H85 FRONT FROM NEAR WAL-PTB-HKY LINE.  THUS...WOULD
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT LIKE MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS...WOULD EXPECT PULSE-LIKE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS OF MT INTO ND/SD...

APPROACHING TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS MT INTO WRN AREAS OF ND/SD BY END OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS
DEVELOP 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THIS AREA. 
THUS...INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5C/KM COULD RESULT IN DRY
MICROBURST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

...SRN AZ...

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER REGION IN AREA WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S.  REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD LEAD TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 08/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.