[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232009
SWODY1
SPC AC 232008

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
AIA 45 WSW MHN 35 NNE HLC 20 SSE RSL 20 SW P28 25 NW GAG 10 NE CAO
40 E TAD 40 ESE FCL 20 WSW BFF 20 W AIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ISN 25 ESE OLF 70 ENE LWT 45 NE GTF 45 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 60 WNW EED
30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 N
BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD P35 40 WSW STL 20 E
MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN 10 S ACY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30
SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR
40 N BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/NERN MT...

......AR/NRN MS...

REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS KS/OK INTO
MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON.  DECAYING CLOUD DEBRIS AND STRONG SUNSHINE
HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF RENEWED
CONVECTION.  IT APPEARS ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
AHEAD OF REMNANT MVC OVER NWRN AR...EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING
DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  REF MCD #2057 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS.  THIS AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND APPEARS RECEPTIVE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM/SRN CO...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.  AS HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS.  GIVEN THE VEERING
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.  OTHER
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE
NEB PANHANDLE WHERE FAVORABLE ELY COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS...1KM...CONTINUES.

...ERN MT...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING
ACROSS CNTRL MT TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH.  OVER THE LAST HOUR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
NORTH OF GTF ALONG DEVELOPING WIND SHIFT.  AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
ACROSS MT CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO MAINLY SRN
SASKATCHEWAN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NRN/NERN MT WHERE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. 
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 08/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.