[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231302
SWODY1
SPC AC 231301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
EWN 30 W OAJ 25 NW SOP 30 E DAN 25 NE RIC WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
CDR 25 NW MHN 40 SSW EAR 25 N ICT 30 NNE END 35 SE LBL 30 NNW EHA 20
ENE LHX 40 ENE FCL 55 NW BFF 20 WNW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR
15 NNE FSD 55 ESE SUX P35 25 ENE COU 30 NNW MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL
20 SE EKN DOV ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55
ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL
45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 W BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC/SE VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAINED CONSIDERABLY AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS
WEAKER/FLATTER SRN STREAM PERSISTS FROM THE GRT BASIN ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLNS TO THE NC CST.  QUEBEC UPR LOW SHOULD DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IMPULSE NOW CROSSING LWR MI CONTINUES E/SE
AROUND BASE OF SYSTEM AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.

IN THE WEST...SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS WRN BC /PER WV
IMAGERY/ SUGGESTS THAT EXISTING TROUGH OVER BC AND THE PAC NW WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NW MT.  AT THE SAME
TIME...ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD
ACCELERATE LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN ERN UT/WRN WY E INTO
THE HI PLNS.

AT LWR LEVELS...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE OF NOTE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM ERN NC W ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO SRN KS.  FARTHER N
AND W...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SE ACROSS WRN MT/ID..
WHILE ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AS AXIS OF MODERATE MID
LEVEL WLY FLOW /ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET/ PERSISTS OVER
REGION.  SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE SRN JET... COUPLED WITH
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR AND/OR EXTEND SOMEWHAT FARTHER NWD TODAY ...AFFECTING PARTS OF
ERN WY...ERN MT...WRN NEB AND WRN SD.

STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPORTED LARGELY BY DIURNAL UPSLOPE
CIRCULATIONS...BUT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD
FROM UT/WRN WY.  A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM INVOF NE/SW COLD FRONT
IN MT. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN
HI PLNS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL FOCUS FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE SSE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS.

WITH SURFACE HEATING BOOSTING MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...STEEP LOW
TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO E/ESE-MOVING MASS THAT EXTEND A
THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND INTO THE NIGHT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS.

...ERN NC/SE VA...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM/STRENGTHEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF
DIFFUSE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER NC/SRN VA LATER TODAY...WHERE
AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY REACH 1500 J/KG.  MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT
BELT OF 25-30 KT WNWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS ACROSS
REGION...SUPPORTING SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.  A SOMEWHAT MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SE VA/NE NC AS
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE NOW IN MI INDUCES WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL
REMAIN WEAK.  BUT ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT/
WAVE...COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND MODERATE DEEP WLY SHEAR ON SRN
FRINGE OF THE WLYS...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ROTATING
STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

...CNTRL/SRN AZ...
A FEW STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS MAY FORM ALONG DEEP MOISTURE
GRADIENT EXTENDING NE/SW ACROSS S CNTRL AX...WHERE HI PWS AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ON FRINGE OF DEEPER CLOUDINESS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.