[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230503
SWODY1
SPC AC 230502

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
EWN 30 W OAJ 25 NW SOP 30 E DAN 25 NE RIC WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW
CDR 25 NW MHN 40 SSW EAR 45 W HUT 45 NNE GAG 25 ESE LBL 30 NNW EHA
30 NNE LHX 50 NW AKO 55 NW BFF 20 WNW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25
WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW
EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT
25 E BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 35 ENE MHE 25 S SUX 25 WSW
P35 25 ENE COU 30 NNW MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN DOV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN VA / NERN
NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER ERN CANADA/THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY EWD...WHILE BELT OF SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED FLOW ARCS
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY...AROUND S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.  EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WITHIN THIS BELT OF FLOW AND PRESENCE OF LINGERING BAROCLINIC
ZONE AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES REGION WITH TIME.  THOUGH ASSOCIATED
FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MT...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...MAINLY OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM MT SWD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS -- INVOF COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NE-SW ACROSS
MT...AS WELL AS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN MT SWD
INTO ERN CO AND THEN SSEWD INTO WRN OK.  THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THIS REGION...GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE
SSEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS.

ACROSS THIS AREA...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.  ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY...MODELS FORECAST 30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JETLET TO SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST...VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  

LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS --
AS WELL AS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS INVOF NWRN KS WHICH
SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME.

...SERN VA/NERN NC...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF LINGERING FRONT --
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THEN
WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES INTO AR.  WITH BELT OF 20
TO 25 KT MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW FORECAST FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE
CAROLINAS...EXPECT PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
HAIL/WIND THREAT.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SERN VA
INTO NERN NC.  NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM.  WITH THIS
REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND ELY/SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT/NE OF POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILE MAY YIELD
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL STORMS. 
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION --
PRIMARILY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 08/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.