[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221937
SWODY1
SPC AC 221935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 45 W ACT
15 SSW MWL 35 NNE ABI 20 SW BGS 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 20 SW
PHX 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 15 ESE 4LW
PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 20 W YKN 35 N ALN 30 SW
LUK 15 WSW RDU 25 NNW EWN 30 E ECG ...CONT... EPM 25 W BGR 25 ENE
EFK.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

WIDESPREAD...EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS WILL MERGE AND OVERTURN
WHAT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SC INTO THE CNTRL
GULF STATES.  ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STORM
MERGERS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA...AND FARTHER WEST INTO
PORTIONS OF MS AND WRN AL...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HOLDING IN
THE 8-9C/KM RANGE.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN
SHIFTING CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS DEBRIS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BENEATH DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.  FARTHER NORTH...WEAKER
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NERN CO TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION WILL RESULT
IN SLOW...SWD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS.  VEERING PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT MAY LEND TO WEAK ROTATION...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLY GENERATING
SOME HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

...MT...

DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS ONCE AGAIN FORCED DEEP
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN MT...SWD.  STEERING CURRENTS FAVOR
THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE PLAINS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  IT APPEARS A FEW UPDRAFTS NEAR
THE INITIATION REGION MAY GENERATE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO WARRANT ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS.

..DARROW.. 08/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.