[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221655
SWODY1
SPC AC 221653

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG
20 W YKN 35 N ALN 30 SW LUK 15 WSW RDU 25 NNW EWN 30 E ECG
...CONT... PSM 30 NNW BML ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 45 W ACT 15 SSW MWL
35 NNE ABI 20 SW BGS 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 10 SE PHX 25 S
EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 15 ESE 4LW PDT 30 N
63S.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN INDICATES POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER
NERN ALBERTA/NWRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD THRU VANCOUVER ISLAND.  WEAK
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH
DOMINATE RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLATEAU EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL ME...
THEN CONTINUING FROM SRN SC AND CENTRAL GA INTO NRN LA.  SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL AR INTO
SRN OK/NRN TX ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THEN NWWD THRU THE OK
PANHANDLE.  IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM S CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN INTO N CENTRAL MT...THEN ANOTHER FROM CENTRAL WA INTO
NWRN OREGON.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO WRN SD AND PARTS OF MT...

WEAK FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY OF
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND ANY
UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OVERWORKED AREA.  AIR
MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG...POSSIBLY 1500 J/KG. THUS...THERMODYNAMIC DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
ERN CO INTO WRN KS...POSSIBLY INTO NWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD INTO
ERN AND CENTRAL MT WHERE MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED A RIBBON OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTEND NWWD INTO SERN MT.  COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS EXTREME NWRN MT AT THIS TIME...AND MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION
 MOSTLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SERN AND GULF STATES...

VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.  MOSTLY WEAK LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6.0-6.5C/KM ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE SAME REGIME
THAT MOSTLY REPORTED ISOLATED MARGINAL YESTERDAY.  PULSE TYPE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN TODAY WITH
MARGINAL WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PULSE STORMS IN THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.