[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221257
SWODY1
SPC AC 221256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
COS 25 SE FCL 20 SSE SNY GLD LBL 55 S LBL 15 NW CAO 20 ESE COS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 S SAT 15
S TPL 25 SSW ABI 20 S FST 90 SSW P07 ...CONT... 85 SSW GBN 15 ESE
PHX 15 WNW FLG 35 S SGU 65 N DRA 30 E MER 65 SE RBL 20 ENE LMT PDT
30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 55 E SUX 20 E DSM 15 NE ALN
35 NW EVV 20 SSE SDF 10 SW JKL 40 ESE 5I3 15 NNW ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE
BML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE
BML.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN QUEBEC UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS COMPLEX UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SE ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN RCKYS.  IN THE SRN STREAM...WATER VAPOR
LOOP DEPICTS AT LEAST THREE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OF NOTE.  ONE IS OVER
ERN ORE...ANOTHER IS NOW ENTERING CNTRL CA...AND A THIRD IS OVER NE
CO.  ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN APPARENT IMPULSE/POSSIBLE
MCV OVER W TN.

AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED FRONT WILL SETTLE SE ACROSS
MT TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSISTS OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES.  FARTHER N...A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY
WILL ALSO LINGER FROM NW TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO OK...
AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS E/SE
INTO WRN PARTS OF KS AND OK...AS CLEARING OCCURS IN WAKE OF OVER
OVERNIGHT MCS. WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS REGION... MAINLY
IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.  MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW
ON SRN SIDE OF CO IMPULSE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS LATER
TODAY...YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY WILL BE WEAK.  BUT INCREASING SHEAR WITH ALONG WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE
INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO AND CONTINUE E/SE INTO WRN KS/NW OK
TONIGHT.

...TN VLY...
STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY TODAY AS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INVOF SMALL MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING E
ACROSS REGION. GIVEN HI PWS AND BACKGROUND PATTERN FEATURING
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE
WLYS...SETUP COULD RESULT IN A BAND OR TWO OF STRONG/SUSTAINED
STORMS...POSSIBLY WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.

...ID INTO WRN/NRN MT...
CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF ORE UPR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
INFLUX...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ID/MT.  SUPPORT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
STRENGTHENING UPR DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH.  STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT
SSWLY MID LEVEL SSW FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE
INTO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT BANDS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED REPORTS OF
HIGH WIND.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.