[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220553
SWODY1
SPC AC 220551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 40 ENE PHX
20 NE FLG 35 SE SGU 65 N DRA 30 E MER 65 SE RBL 20 ENE LMT PDT 30 N
63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 55 E SUX 20 E DSM 15 NE ALN 35
NW EVV 20 SSE SDF 10 SW JKL 40 ESE 5I3 15 NNW ORF ...CONT... 40 NW
LRD 25 S SAT 15 S TPL 25 SSW ABI FST 55 SW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE
BML.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE NERN
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SMALLER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- THROUGH MEAN RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC
NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...PHASING WITH WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN
CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK/REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  A SECOND FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE/MT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO OK...
AIRMASS WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EWD/SEWD INTO KS/OK THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION
REGIME PERSISTS.  STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON --
MAINLY NEAR AND N OF REMNANT FRONT.

THOUGH NAM FORECASTS 25 TO 30 KT WNWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...NAMKF DEPICTS MUCH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. 
WITH STRENGTH OF SHEAR LIKELY DETERMINING DEGREE OF SEVERE
THREAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST MAINTAINING
5% WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK WOULD COULD BE WARRANTED IF SHEAR IS INDEED STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF REMNANT FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH GENERALLY
WEAK WIND FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF ERN U.S. TROUGH...BUT WITH STRONGER FLOW
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A
5% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 08/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.