[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211628
SWODY1
SPC AC 211627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 20
SE POU 15 NW PSF RUT 15 S MPV 20 SSW MWN 15 S PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSW PRC
50 W P38 60 ENE SVE 15 WNW MHS 45 S EUG DLS GEG 20 SW FCA 50 NE MSO
20 SSW BZN 20 S COD 40 S SHR 45 SSW REJ 40 S FSD 20 NNE BRL 30 W SPI
25 ESE MDH 35 SW SDF 25 SE LEX 15 WSW 5I3 40 S BLF 40 N GSO 40 S CHO
30 W ILG 10 S MSV 25 WSW GFL 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 25 W MFE 40 NNW
VCT ACT 10 W SEP 15 ESE ABI 30 NW SJT 55 E FST 25 SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO
QUEBEC TONIGHT AS REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
 FARTHER WEST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN
CO.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS BEST INDICATED BY THETA/DEW POINT
GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS NY..PA THEN WWD ACROSS OH VALLEY  INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  FARTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...THE
FRONT MAY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...NEW ENGLAND...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THICKER CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DIABATIC HEATING WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN NY INTO SRN PARTS OF VT/NH. WARMING IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING ESEWD
INTO SERN NY ATTM...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS IT
MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS.  IN ADDITION..AN
ISOLATED CELL HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH OVER WRN VT. MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM ETA..SREF..AND 00Z 4.5 KM WRF-NMM RUN INDICATES A BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION /ESPECIALLY SRN NEW
ENGLAND/ THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION BY EVENING. 
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 3-4 KM AGL
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION.  THIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION/ERN CAROLINAS...
LOW LEVEL NWLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING EAST OF
APPALACHIANS LIMITING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REGIONS CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500
J/KG IN NJ/DELMARVA REGION TO 3500 J/KG IN THE ERN CAROLINAS. 
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. 
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PRIMARY THREAT FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH...
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER RELATIVELY
WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOA -5C IS REDUCING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL PARCEL ASCENT.  WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG HEATING OCCURS...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.  WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND
BRIEF IN DURATION.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO KS/WRN MO IS
LIKELY TO INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...SEVERAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD REGION.  IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED
STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW CELLS.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN CO UPPER LOW.  PRIMARY
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NEB
TONIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.