[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211954
SWODY1
SPC AC 211952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
BID 25 W GON 20 SSW BDL 10 NNW BAF 15 NNE ORH 15 ENE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSW PRC
50 W P38 60 ENE SVE 15 WNW MHS 45 S EUG DLS GEG 20 SW FCA 50 NE MSO
20 SSW BZN 20 S COD 40 S SHR 45 SSW REJ 15 SSE FSD 20 SW MLI 30 W
SPI 25 ESE MDH 35 SW SDF 25 SE LEX 15 WSW 5I3 40 S BLF 40 N GSO 40 S
CHO 30 W ILG 10 S MSV 25 WSW GFL 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 25 W MFE 40
NNW VCT ACT 10 W SEP 15 ESE ABI 30 NW SJT 55 E FST 25 SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CT...RI AND MA...

...NEW ENGLAND...
REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEARS TO BE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CT/RI
INTO SERN MA WHERE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS.

...NC COAST WWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO AR/MO...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF +30
F T/TD SPREADS OVER NRN MS INTO SERN AR WHICH SUGGEST A DEEP AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING OWING TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER...THOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED.

OVER WRN PART OF REGION...NAMELY SRN MO/NRN AR...WELL-DEFINED AND
COMPACT CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
SERN KS/FAR SWRN MO. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MORE INTENSE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS.

...NEB/IA...
ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED W OF OFK THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG STALLED WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /REF. NELIGH PROFILER/ AND IMPLIED CONFLUENT
MID-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE THAT
LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

...KS...
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND W OF HYS WITHIN REGION OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN KS IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE EXTENDING FROM MCK TO HLC TO BETWEEN GBD AND SLN MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT IN LOCAL PROFILERS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY/DURATION...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 08/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.