[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211259
SWODY1
SPC AC 211257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 NW GBN
25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF 40
WNW BIL 45 E 81V FSD 25 NW FOD 20 S CID 30 SW PIA 10 N STL 25 SE MDH
40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE ...CONT... 15 SW MFE 35 NNW
VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW NEARING JAMES BAY SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC
THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E INTO MANITOBA.  IN THE
MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM...UPR LOW NOW OVER NW CO EXPECTED TO SETTLE
SLOWLY ESE...REACHING WRN KS BY 12Z MONDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO LOW SHOULD
MOVE E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE AS FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGHS E OF THE APLCNS.  FARTHER SW...TRAILING WRN
PART OF FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT N AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.

...SRN NEW ENG/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO TROUGH
MOVES E ACROSS REGION. THIS FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO REGION. 
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE...THESE FACTORS SHOULD MINIMIZE
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SRN NEW ENG SWD INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS.  WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS IN SRN NEW ENG/NY/NJ...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT.  SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO
2000 J PER KG/...MAY EXIST FARTHER S OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN. BUT WEAKER DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
AREA WILL ALSO REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. 
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK
WARM ADVECTION RESUMES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING CO UPR LOW. 
SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG
STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BUT
WEAK WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION...AND
KEEP ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREATS LIMITED.  AN AREA OR TWO OF
ELEVATED STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
FORM EARLY MONDAY OVER ERN NEB AND IA AS WARM ADVECTION FOCUSES N OF
SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE NOW MOVING S ACROSS SD/MN.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.