[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210558
SWODY1
SPC AC 210557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT
25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW
GBN 50 NW GBN 25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10
SE FCA GTF 40 WNW BIL 45 E 81V 40 WNW OFK 35 SSE OMA 25 NNE MKC 20
SW JEF 25 W MDH 40 ENE EVV 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE NERN
CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE UPPER PATTERN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS
REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SWD AND WEAKENING WITH TIME
INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD
LINGER/DRIFT NWD AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. 

...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK S OF TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION.
 HOWEVER...CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD HINDER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THIS REGION...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FORECAST. 

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGION...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  FURTHER S INTO THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGION...SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR...BUT
WEAKENING FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMES WITHIN
 MODESTLY-DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING VORT MAX OVER
CO.  THOUGH STORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD...VERY WEAK WIND FIELD
SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY PULSE STORMS...ALONG WITH LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE
THREAT.

..GOSS.. 08/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.